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Facilitate discussion about cyclical patterns, correlations, and other relationships between the
different events and changes. Try to identify what drove the changes. This can form the basis of a
subsequent discussion of how the community responded to different pressures and levels of
resource availability.
Brainstorm potential or unpredictable changes that may occur in the short- or long-term and what
the impacts on the resource or community would be.
TOOL: Trend Line Analysis
Purpose: This tool can be adapted and used to provide a visual image of a number of interrelated
changes that have affected the community in the past and how the community envisions them in the
future. By plotting them on a graph, community members can analyze and discuss trends and
correlations between issues. It can also help identify issues that require specific attention to build on
existing capacities and potential and to mitigate future risks.
Resource: Adapted from draft Asset-Based Community Development Facilitator’s Handbook (Mountain
Societies Development Support Programme, 2008)
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On a large sheet of paper or in a clear area of sand or
Population size
dirt, outline a basic graph. The X axis (horizontal line)
Freshwater supply
represents time and could be separated into general
Soil quality
eras such as past, present, and future. Add a clear mark
Forest cover
to indicate the present. The Y axis (vertical) represents
Area or quality of rangeland
relative value.
Number of youth in traditional
Encourage community members to brainstorm key
occupations
topics that affect their ways of life and wellbeing. The
Natural disasters or conflicts
topics should be reasonably related to each though
sufficiently distinct (see Box 23 for examples).
Ask them to prioritize 3-6 topics to be illustrated on the Box 23: Examples of possible trend line
topics
graph. More than 6 lines may cause the graph to be
cluttered and difficult to understand.
Encourage community members to illustrate each topic by drawing its general trend or rate of
change over time. The trend line should illustrate the actual trend up until the present and then
the community’s vision for the trend in the future. For example, if forest cover has gradually
decreased in the community’s main watershed, start at a high point on the Y axis and draw a
shallow line downwards up until the line that demarcates the present. If the community would
like to rapidly increase forest cover in the future, draw a steeper line into that part of the graph
(see Figure 5).
If possible, each trend line should be drawn by a different community member. As each is drawn
on the graph, check in with the rest of the group to ensure it is reasonably accurate.
After all of the trend lines have been plotted, facilitate a discussion about how the trend lines are
related and what conditions or factors cause them to influence each other. For example, how was
the decrease in forest cover affected by population growth or a major natural disaster? How did
the community respond in the past and what impact did this have on other trends? How could the
community help reduce negative trends and further strengthen positive trends in the future?